Elections, Politics

Poll: Democrat Advantage Shrinks to Lowest Point in ’18

According to the latest poll from Fox News, Democrats’ generic ballot advantage has shrunk to nearly nothing since late last year when that advantage stood at 15 points.

These most recent numbers show a razor-thin 5 point gap, which includes the margin of error of 3-4 points.

Democrats are salivating over the prospect of taking back control of the House so they can impeach President Trump.

But analysts point out that back in 2014, they had a similarly small lead and yet Republicans won 13 new seats.

So the moral of the story is Democrats need to regain some serious mojo in the polls or they’re DOA in November.

Here’s more from Fox News…

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The latest Fox News poll finds a tightening race when voters are asked their candidate preference in this fall’s congressional election.

That’s good news for Republicans because Democrats were up by 15 points in October (50-35 percent) in the so-called generic ballot test.  Now, it’s a 5-point edge, as 46 percent of voters would back the Democratic candidate in their district and 41 percent the Republican.

“Just winning the popular national vote is not enough to flip the House,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the poll with Democrat Chris Anderson.  “Given the GOP’s districting advantages, data from 2012 and 2014 show the Democrats need an edge of at least five points to bring the majority into play.”

“I like this question as a gauge of perceptions month to month,” says Anderson. “But its predictive power seven months from the election is dubious.”

Anderson points out that in March of 2014, Democrats had a 2-point edge on the vote question and Republicans ultimately picked up 13 House seats that November.  And in March 2010, Republicans had a 4-point advantage and went on to win 63 seats.

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