Elections, Politics

2020 New Hampshire Primary Poll: Trump 48, Kasich 42

Um, so, the Republican nomination for 2020 isn’t such a sure thing after all.

A new poll is out for New Hampshire which has John Kasich within the margin of error with President Trump.

The caveats that New Hampshire is a quirky place and that it’s still a year and a half until the primary season really heats up are obvious.

Nevertheless, it reveals the soft underbelly of Trump’s support at a time when most presidencies would still be solid among their base.

Should the Republicans lose Congress, Trump’s ability to push through his agenda will hurt the likelihood of racking up legislative wins ahead of 2020.

This could get interesting.

Here’s more from Hotair…

American Research Group found Gov. John Kasich of Ohio trailing Trump in a two-way race, 42% to 48%, among likely Republican primary voters, with 9% undecided. Trump leads another possible rival, Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona, 49% to 33%, with 18% undecided.

The results come ahead of Kasich’s third visit to the nation’s first primary state since ending his 2016 bid for president. He will speak Tuesday evening at New England College in Henniker. Flake, who is retiring from the Senate this year, made a trip to the state last month…

The more anti-Trump challengers in New Hampshire, the easier the path for Trump. In a hypothetical primary where Flake and Kasich both run, Trumps leads the three-way field with 51%, followed by Kasich at 34%, and Flake at 4%, with 11% undecided.

Look again at that last number. In a three-way race with Trump running as a populist and Kasich running as a centrist, leaving Flake the entirety of New Hampshire conservatives and libertarians as his natural base, Flake manages … four percent. New Hampshire is “quirky,” I realize, but that feels like a useful snapshot of the state of the conservative movement circa 2018.

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Elections

West Virginia Tests Secure Mobile Voting App

The state of West Virginia is pioneering the use of mobile technology for voting.

In initial tests, which are limited to military personnel in a couple counties, voters will be able to cast votes via an app that is available for iPhone and Android.

The app is reportedly secure.

If all goes well, the state intends to roll it out to a broader population of voters because they want to “encourage voter participation at every level.”

Memo to West Virginia: we’re embroiled nationally in a scandal of epic proportions centered on the idea that Russian hackers hacked our most secure systems.

This idea will not end well.

Not to mention, enabling voters who aren’t already willing to leave their couch to vote via their smartphones probably isn’t the wisest idea in the world.

Here’s more from the Hill…

West Virginia is testing a new secure mobile voting application to help active-duty military members vote in the upcoming May primary election.

Secretary of State Mac Warner (R) announced the pilot program on Wednesday afternoon. It will initially be limited to military voters and their spouses and children who are registered to vote in Harrison and Monongalia counties. However, the state plans to expand the program to all 55 counties in the upcoming November general election if the pilot proves successful.

The app is powered by Blockchain, a type of technology used to secure cryptocurrency that has gained increased attention with the rising popularity of digital currencies such as bitcoin. The technology has already been deployed in health care and other industries to secure data.

Security experts in the wake of Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election have increasingly pointed to blockchain technology as a way to secure election systems and ensure confidence in future votes.

West Virginia is the first state to test out a blockchain-based application to administer a federal election.

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Elections, Politics

Poll: Democrat Advantage Shrinks to Lowest Point in ’18

According to the latest poll from Fox News, Democrats’ generic ballot advantage has shrunk to nearly nothing since late last year when that advantage stood at 15 points.

These most recent numbers show a razor-thin 5 point gap, which includes the margin of error of 3-4 points.

Democrats are salivating over the prospect of taking back control of the House so they can impeach President Trump.

But analysts point out that back in 2014, they had a similarly small lead and yet Republicans won 13 new seats.

So the moral of the story is Democrats need to regain some serious mojo in the polls or they’re DOA in November.

Here’s more from Fox News…

The latest Fox News poll finds a tightening race when voters are asked their candidate preference in this fall’s congressional election.

That’s good news for Republicans because Democrats were up by 15 points in October (50-35 percent) in the so-called generic ballot test.  Now, it’s a 5-point edge, as 46 percent of voters would back the Democratic candidate in their district and 41 percent the Republican.

“Just winning the popular national vote is not enough to flip the House,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the poll with Democrat Chris Anderson.  “Given the GOP’s districting advantages, data from 2012 and 2014 show the Democrats need an edge of at least five points to bring the majority into play.”

“I like this question as a gauge of perceptions month to month,” says Anderson. “But its predictive power seven months from the election is dubious.”

Anderson points out that in March of 2014, Democrats had a 2-point edge on the vote question and Republicans ultimately picked up 13 House seats that November.  And in March 2010, Republicans had a 4-point advantage and went on to win 63 seats.

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Elections, Politics

Joe Biden Wants to ‘Beat the Hell Out of’ Trump

It’s undeniable now that former Vice President Joe Biden is running for president.

So it comes as no surprise that he’d show up at an “It’s On Us” rally in Miami to take advantage of the anti-gun fervor in hopes of propelling his stock.

And that’s when he dropped a hint of how his campaign will run against Trump in 2020.

Reminding the crowd of the infamous Access Hollywood audio in which the grabbing of certain body parts were mentioned, Biden reiterated that he’d have taken a guy like that in high school behind the gym to ‘beat the hell out of’ him.

To which Trump replied essentially: bring it on.

So there you have it: the 2020 fight will be between a guy who talked about grabbing women and a guy who routinely does.

Here’s more from PJ Media…

Former Vice President Joe Biden told students at the University of Miami that he wishes he could engage in fisticuffs with President Donald Trump over the infamous Access Hollywood comments. The president shot back on Twitter.

“When a guy who ended up becoming our national leader said, ‘I can grab a woman anywhere and she likes it,’ and then said, ‘I made a mistake,’ they asked me would I like to debate this gentleman, and I said no,” Biden recalled. “I said, ‘If we were in high school, I’d take him behind the gym and beat the hell out of him.'”

The University of Miami College Democrats posted the video of these remarks on Facebook. The former vice president’s taunt to Trump begins around minute 43 of the video below.

Trump responded:

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Elections

Shapiro: Midterms Could Be ‘Very, Very Ugly’ for GOP

Yesterday’s special congressional election in Pennsylvania is giving the GOP serious cause for concern.

The race ended with a razor-thin margin of victory of only 640 votes, with the final triumph going to the Democrats.

That’s not a spectacular victory.

But it’s a district that President Trump won by 20 points in 2016.

With a growing economy and successful tax reform bill, this should have been a safe seat.

So naturally Democrats are crowing today about how the win is a bellwether for the November midterms.

If they’re right, it could be a bloodbath for the GOP.

Here’s more from BizPacReview…

Conservative commentator Ben Shapiro issued a stern warning to Republicans, saying the 2018 midterm elections could get “very, very ugly” for the GOP if they don’t get their acts together and focus on winning.

“In the seven special elections held in 2017, the average shift from 2016 results was D+16,” Shapiro tweeted Tuesday night. “Tonight, it’s D+20. 2018 will be very, very ugly unless something cataclysmic happens for GOP.”

The editor-in-chief of the Daily Wire made the observations while analyzing the Pennsylvania special election, where Democratic upstart Conor Lamb gave GOP candidate Rick Saccone a surprisingly tough race.

Saccone, who was endorsed by President Trump, struggled in a district where Trump had trounced Hillary Clinton by 20 points. Naturally, Democrats blamed Trump for Saccone’s poor performance, and gleefully gloated that this is a sign of things to come for the 2018 midterms.

Meanwhile, liberals forget that Democrats lost more than 1,030 seats during Barack Obama’s tenure, and they never blamed him for it.

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Elections, Politics

Report: Obama Hired Fusion GPS to Dig Dirt on Romney

A new book is out that reports clandestine payments to Fusion GPS, funneled through Perkins Coie law firm, for opposition research supplied to Barack Obama’s campaign in 2012.

Fusion GPS reportedly conducted a deep-dive not just into Mitt Romney’s campaign but also into his donors’ lives and businesses as well.

After the dirt hit the Internet, at least two Romney donors found themselves the subject of audits and investigations by the federal government.

Given what we now know about Fusion’s role in the Trump dossier, none of this news comes as any surprise at all.

Fusion is and has been the attack dog of the DNC and liberals for a decade. And now’s the time to investigate how far the rabbit hole really goes.

Here’s more from PJ Media…

A new book claims that the Barack Obama presidential campaign hired Fusion GPS in 2012 to dig up dirt on Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, The Daily Caller reports.

Obama for America (OFA) reportedly obscured its payments to Fusion GPS through Perkins Coie, an international law firm, in an arrangement similar to the one that the Clinton campaign and Democratic National Committee used to pay Fusion to dig up dirt on then-candidate Donald Trump in 2016.

In 2012, Fusion reportedly dug up dirt on Romney’s donors as well so that the Obama campaign could publicly slime them on its official website.

Federal Election Commission (FEC) records show that OFA has paid over $972,000 to Perkins Coie, an international law firm, since April of 2016.

The book, “Russian Roulette: The Inside Story of Putin’s War on America and Donald Trump’s Election” by Michael Isikoff and David Corn alleges that OFA hired Fusion GPS to do opposition research on Mitt Romney for Barack Obama’s reelection campaign.

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Elections, Politics

Biden Aides To Politico: 2020 Is Go, But One Term

President Trump has officially announced the beginning of his re-election campaign this month. And lots of speculation about potential Democrat challengers is catching fire.

Which of course is why it’s perfect timing for Joe Biden to begin leaking hints of his final bid for the White House.

And that’s precisely what his campaign aides are doing.

According to Politico, Biden is jet-setting around the country with energy to spare, promising the final battle with Trump.

But, lest we worry about his age, he’ll promise only to serve one term since he’ll be the oldest president in history.

Promises, promises.

Here’s more from Hotair…

Will Democrats really get behind a do-over in 2020? Many have speculated that a late substitution of Joe Biden for Hillary Clinton might have saved the White House for Democrats in 2016, and at the very least it’s tough to argue that they could have done worse. Biden, for instance, would have known to campaign in the blue-wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and would have been better positioned to connect with working-class Americans outside the urban-coastal progressive bubbles.

The Democratic Party, however, wants to double down on those progressive bubbles in the future, so Politico reports that Biden’s aides are working on an unusual primary pitch. How about one term of Joe Biden as a “reset” president, in which he adds a young progressive to the ticket for 2024?

Between stops on his book tour and in the ramp-up for what will be a heavy midterms campaign schedule, a tight circle of aides has been brainstorming a range of tear-up-the-playbook ideas for a White House run, according to people who’ve been part of the discussions or told about them.

On the list: announcing his candidacy either really early or really late in the primary process so that he’d define the field around him or let it define itself before scrambling the field; skipping Iowa and New Hampshire and going straight to South Carolina, where he has always had a strong base of support; announcing a running mate right out of the gate and possibly picking one from outside of politics; and making a pitch that he can be a bridge not just to disaffected Democrats, but to Republicans revolting against President Donald Trump.

They’ve also discussed an idea some donors and supporters have been pitching Biden on directly for months: kick off by announcing that he’d only run for one term. One person who’s pitched the idea said Biden would try to sell voters on “a reset presidency.” The former vice president would pick a younger Democratic running mate and argue that he’d be the elder statesman to get the country and government back in order post-Trump and be the bridge to the next generation.

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Elections, Politics

Axios: Democrats Are Heading For a Midterm Buzzsaw

Lots of folks in the leftist media love fawning over the ‘resistance’ and the narrative that the Democrats’ ‘blue wave’ is going to send a massive message to Trump and the Republican Party.

Except, well, it probably won’t.

At least that’s the warning coming from Axios which has pointed out survey data in which Democrat Senators running for re-election in states where Trump won are not looking so hot in the polls.

And that means that, while Republicans are expected to lose some seats, Democrats could easily lose some as well…and possibly more.

That coupled with the fizzled Democrat wave in Texas on Tuesday paints a pretty stark picture for Nancy Pelosi’s dream of being Speaker one last time.

Here’s more from Hotair…

Probably, although this indirect polling argument from Axios might not be the best evidence of it. Partnering with Survey Monkey, Axios polled ten states where Donald Trump won in 2016 to get a lay of the land for upcoming re-election bids by Senate Democrats. They found five states in which Trump’s approval rating widely exceeded that of the Democratic incumbents, positing that Republicans have excellent pickup opportunities there:

Why it matters: Democrats are defending 10 Senate seats in states Trump won in 2016. In six of those states Trump’s approval is higher than 50% (compared to 43% nationally). These numbers underscore how hard it will be for Democrats to pick up the two seats needed to win the majority despite Trump’s troubles.

The most vulnerable senators are Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Jon Tester in Montana and Claire McCaskill in Missouri. Each of their approval ratings is either under 50% or just above it, while Trump’s is well above that in all three states.

The least vulnerable senators are Bill Nelson of Florida, Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, and Sherrod Brown of Ohio. Trump’s approval is at just 46% in Florida and Pennsylvania and 54% in Ohio.

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Elections

Update: The Texas Blue Wave Was A Ripple

Remember the so-called ‘blue wave’ that Democrats were predicting would sweep Texas last night? Turns out that was a pipe dream.

The thought was that the groundswell of Democrat voters would imperil the re-election chances of Sen. Ted Cruz. But those Democrat voters just didn’t materialize.

And it’s probably because, despite the constant controversies associated with Donald Trump, Democrats continue to move to the extreme left.

And that doesn’t sit well with Texans.

So now the midterm elections are still anybody’s ballgame.

Here’s more from Redstate…

Going into last night, the primaries in Texas had a lot of people on the Right worried. Professional Republicans have long worried that growing urbanization and an increasing Hispanic population coupled with Donald Trump’s popularity could spell trouble for the deep red state.

However, as last night came and went, it appeared that the so-called “blue wave” didn’t materialize as expected.

It is very difficult right now to see Ted Cruz losing his re-election bid. Beto O’Rourke is about as far-left as you can get in Texas, and his chances of winning the race are as good as Wendy Davis’ chances are of making a stellar comeback.

His positions are antithetical to core Texas beliefs: He favors banning guns. He is pro-abortion. He believes in increased access to government-funded healthcare. This isn’t speculation, either. This is on his campaign website.

This is why the Democrats struggle to move the ball in red states. They think that the coming Trump backlash means they should go further left, ignoring the damage that the far-left policies of the Obama Administration did to their party in 2016 – so much so that Trump landed a surprise victory and the Republicans ended up making gains in some areas they weren’t expected to.

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Elections, States

Midterms: TX Primaries May Be Indicator of ‘Blue Wave’

Primary elections are going on right now in Texas, the earliest in the nation so far in this midterm election season.

And national GOP leaders are worried early turnout is showing evidence of a growing ‘blue wave’ of Democrat voters surging to the polls.

If Democrats are even slightly more victorious tonight than predicted, the left will certainly point to it as evidence of an anti-Trump referendum and as a bellwether for what’s to come in the November general election.

Democrats have already been pointing to small victories in local elections around the nation as early evidence.

Texas, which has been traditionally deep red, has been under siege by the DNC for at least three presidential cycles.

Tonight will determine whether that is bearing any fruit.

Here’s more from Fox News…

The midterm election season officially kicks off on Tuesday, when Texas voters head to the polls for the nation’s first primary of 2018.

With early voting already suggesting a record turnout for Democrats, and widespread speculation about what effect an endorsement by President Trump will have on Republican candidates, the Texas primaries are being looked at as both a bellwether for the rest of the nation – and a sign the red state could be turning purple more quickly than expected.

“What these primaries really boil down to is one issue: Trump versus anti-Trump,” Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University, told Fox News. “There is relatively little talk about the issues for either party. It’s a race to the margins. Democrats are all against the president, while with Republicans it’s about staying close to Trump, and whether that hurts or helps them.”

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